Swine Flu

Heidi & I just got our annual flu shots ... the "regular, seasonal" type. So now I wonder about getting the H1N1 shots (which will be available in a few days). So (as is my wont), I google and discover the following: ---------------------------------- There was a flu outbreak a few years ago as well as cases of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) which may (or may not) be associated with the vaccine. In 2005, the CDC reported that "available evidence neither proves nor disproves a causal relation between [the vaccine] and GBS". The CDC also notes that the "limitations of the data indicating a small risk for GBS" would not change their recommendations (to take the vaccine). That's not too comforting. ---------------------------------- About the current H1N1 pandemic: "Pandemic" only means it spreads fast, world wide. It has nothing to do with its severity. Indeed, only about 5000 people have died as of this writing: Oct, 2009. The usual "seasonal flu" kills over 250,000 people each year. An earlier definition of pandemic included widespread death. That's been dropped - which is convenient, 'cause "fast track" vaccines are justified by having a pandemic. In Australia, the flu season is ending. Australia has a population of (about) 22 million. There have been 186 deaths. In New Zealand, they predicted 18,000 deaths from swine flu, but at the end of the flu season, it was 17. On the other hand, the 1918 "Spanish Flu" (also an H1N1 variety) killed more than 50 million people, worldwide. Is the current H1N1 like that? The H1N1 virus was detected in the March, 2009. ** Vaccination will begin in the Fall of 2009. Ain't that a mite hasty? Cancer-fighting drugs (for example) take years to go through clinical trials. There's phase I trials, followed by phase II followed by phase III. Mamma mia! I know this 'cause, once-upon-a-time, I followed biotech stocks and invested in an outfit that was designing cancer drugs. I eventually sold the stock ... years later. A study to note the affects of the H1N1 vaccine on HIV subjects will NOT be done until late October, 2009! Clinical trials only began (for some vaccine manufacturers) in August, 2009. H1N1 trials will continue while the vaccinations take place ! "... such factors as optimal antigen content, appropriate dosing regimens, vaccine safety profiles and the interchangeability of H1N1 vaccines from different manufacturers are unknown ..." That's not too comforting. In 2006, in the U.S., the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act gave the Department of Health and Human Services Secretary the power to grant almost complete immunity for those who make vaccines. That is, vaccine manufactures will not be held liable for any injuries. That's not too comforting. Vaccine manufacturer GlaxoSmithKline has actually stated: "Clinical trials will be limited, due to the need to provide the vaccine to governments as quickly as possible. Additional studies will therefore be required and conducted after the vaccine is made available." And WHO likewise says: "Time constraints mean that clinical data at the time when pandemic vaccines are first administered will inevitably be limited. Further testing of safety and effectiveness will need to take place after administration of the vaccine has begun." That's not too comforting. And what about the mysterious adjuvants (to decrease the required supply of vaccine)? Click! And what about mock-up vaccines for fast-track approval? ** March, 2009? So will we take the H1N1 vaccine? We're thinking ... But then, we is in that Old Folk category, eh?

 

Babel

My web site, gummy-stuff, gets lots of visitors from around the world. Alas, I only write in English. Tho' I do know pizza, pepperoni and wienerschnitzel. Aah, but there's a neato Babel translation available, so them that don't read English can see it in Spanish or Japanese or German ----------------------------- Check it out! Type http://www.gummy-stuff.org pick a from-to translation then click the Translate button: ... or just click here

 

Halloween revisited

Apparently, that "Sell in May and Go Away" has worked ... for many countries over the past umpteen years. Assume that we Buy right after Halloween (on Nov 1) and Sell at the start of May (or the end of April). Then let's compare the Total (cumulative) Return for the (November-to-April) period and the Total Return for (May-to-October) ... over the 10 years (Jan 1, 1999 to Jan 1, 2009) for a number of country Indexes. Note that, for each set, there are 10 years worth of time periods, each 6 months long. Anyway, it'd look like so: Mamma mia! I'm a believer! There's a spreadsheet here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Excel/halloween2.xls ------------------------------------- Aah, but does it work for individual stocks (as opposed to country Indexes)? Here's some DOW stocks:

 

Halloween, eh?

After cogitating on that "Irrational Decision" stuff, I wondered if'n investors are frightened by Halloween hobgoblins, witches and ghosts. Perhaps, fearing untoward events, they dump their stock at the end of October. Perhaps, compared to other end-of-month returns, the return (the close on Oct 31 vs the previous day's close) is dramatically less. Perhaps (Mean of Oct 31 returns) - (Mean of ALL end-of-month returns) ... this difference is dramatically negative. So I check a gaggle of end-of-October stock returns (mostly DOW stocks) over the last 10 years: Mamma mia! It's clear! The hobgoblins are nice guys on Halloween, eh? ------------------------------ 'course, there may be other end-of-month returns that are attacked caressed by hobgoblins. Working on the assumption "How goes the DOW,so goes the World" I play with the DOW: Now the hobgoblin effect is evident. They don't like short months: Here's February: Did I mention that there's a spreadsheet to play with? http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Excel/halloween.xls ------------------------------ P.S. There's this "Sell in May and Go Away" called the Halloween Indicator. Anybuddy believe it? If so, BUY NOW! ------------------------------ Did I mention my Contest portfolio? It dropped 5.3% on Oct 30?

 

Irrational Decisions

I watched a video I read about the author I bought the book: ... then I figure I should larn more about this stuff

 

the Hadron

Some time ago I read a neat book on Membrane Theory. Among other things, it spoke of the Hadron collider, the world's largest high-energy particle accelerator which would (might?) validate certain "warped extra-dimensional theories". After involvement of some 10,000 scientists from 100 countries, the Hadron was fired up on Sept. 10, 2008. Many (non-scientific) people were afraid. Would anti-matter be created? Would it create a black hole that would devour the Earth? The scientists that awaited the start up (on Sept 10) hoped that the theoretical existence of the mysterious Higgs boson might be revealed. Higgs what? Higgs who?. --------------------------------------------- On Sept 19, 2008, something went wrong: Hadron failed. It's taken time to fix it ... but: Next month Hadron will be restarted. Okay, so in order to be prepared for the destruction of planet Earth (or even the manipulation of time), I bought a couple of books: Einstein's Bridge (recommended by my son-in-law) and the Accidental Time Machine. I expect to read them both before the Hadron is fired up. I'll then be ready ... for anything.

 

U.S. Debt

Just ran across this chart: Debt Clock Mamma mia!

 

Lithium

Okay, so I check out that stock that's supposed to "triple in five days" and it's a company that mines lithium (in Nevada). Lithium? Is that good? AHA! Lithium-ion batteries, the energy source for the 21st century, eh? So I look at Canadian companies that mine Lithium. (Investing in U.S. companies and I get screwed hurt by the exchange rate.) ------------------------ YES! I find Western Lithium Canada ... up 322% over the past year. It's (gasp!) drilling lithium in Nevada. Take a look at the past 5 days: So I put in my order this morning. Now what? ------------------------ Warren Buffett bought a big stake in a (surprise!) Chinese Electric Car company. That stock has grown (about) 500% since last year when he bought it. Don't these cars use lithium-ion batteries? ------------------------ I reckon it's time for me to larn somethin' 'bout lithium, eh? Click! Then, too, I should check some charts. Click! ------------------------ Then the next great things are Vanadium batteries ... and Western Lithium is acquiring a Vanadium mining company in Nevada.

 

Stock Picker

Every couple of days (for a month), I've been getting e-mail from some fella who says he got hisself a hot stock and will retire as a stock picker if'n it don't triple in five days. This morning, he gave some info on the stock. At 9 AM, Oct. 20, he'll provide the stock symbol here. Then (of course!) everybuddy will run out and buy the stock and it'll increase dramatically ... and this guy will dump his shares. So I surf the Net to see if'n I could identify the stock from the info he provided today ... and I find this guy. Check out the volume of shares. Looks like this fella is buying like crazy today, anticipating a big dump tomorrow morning, eh? This fella got training in pump-and-dump, but don't got much training in 'rithmetic. His e-mail this morning said: "Triple in price? That's a 300% return." After extensive analysis, I calculate that triple in price gives a 200% return. P.S. Check out the price and volume movement >> Somebuddy (guess who?) is buying lots at the Open. >> The price jumps 25%. >> Somebuddy (guess who?) is selling at the Close. >> I kin hardly wait to see what happens Oct 20 ... at the Open.

 

Healthcare

I've been following the the U.S. healthcare debate: I'm beginning to feel that supporters should protest with signs that read: Mamma mia! Why the disconnect? Perhaps it's because health insurance companies and their lobbyists spent at the rate of $1.4 million a day from January to March.

 

Gremlins

Yesterday morning I figured my favourite stock will open UP big time. That's based upon exhausting exhaustive (and very sophisticated) mathematical analysis. Indeed, I generated a chart like so: Though a 3% increase in the Open (from the previous Close) would guarantee a gain (from Open to Close) of 0.68022% (accurate to five places of decimal), I go for the 2%. I'm not greedy, eh? GCE does open at 2% greater than the previous Close and I buy it at $4.12 ... eagerly. Then I watch in dismay as it drops to $4.06. Now I'm investigating the error in the assumptions. Math is never wrong, right? Now there's this Theory of Gremlins in Mathematics. Maybe, just maybe ... PS#1 If one doesn't mind a few gremlins, the spreadsheet is available for amusement, here: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Excel/BuyOPEN.xls PS#2 After careless careful analysis, I predict my favourite stock will open UP big time, this morning. Have I said that before? ----------------------------- A week ago I made a prediction (for my brother-in-law). I said that his CBQ = BRIC stock (then $27.75) would hit $31 in two weeks. Though we both laugh, he keeps reminding me of the prediction. I take a peek this morning and find that it's trading at (about) $30. (It closed at $29.97.) If my predictions comes to pass, people may actually take 'em seriously ... and that ain't good.

 

TV Shows

Got this from an Internet friend: Dan M.

 

Thanksgiving

It's Thanksgiving in Canada ... and we celebrated at Lori & Jay's: Click!

 

Google

I'm havin' a great time with Google's Street View. It's amazing what the google cameras pick up, eh?

 

Obama wins

Guess who wins the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize? For "extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples." Whoooeee !! PS#1 In his will, Swedish industrialist and inventor Alfred Nobel said the Peace Prize, presented annually in Oslo, should be awarded "to the person who shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses." PS#2 Unlike the other Nobel Prizes, which recognize completed scientific or literary accomplishment, the Nobel Peace Prize may be awarded to persons or organizations that are in the process of resolving a conflict or creating peace. As some such processes have failed to create lasting peace, some Peace Prizes appear questionable in hindsight. For example, the awards given to Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Shimon Peres, Yitzhak Rabin, Yasser Arafat, Lê Ðức Thọ, and Henry Kissinger were particularly controversial and criticized; the Kissinger-Thọ award prompted two dissenting Committee members to resign. PS#3 ... three-in-four (77%) respondents in the European Union and Turkey support President Obama’s handling of international affairs ..."

 

Prague

Some 65 years ago (as a child!), my wife lived in Prague with her parents, two brothers and a sister. A few years ago we were trying to find the house where she lived, using Google Earth. We found this: She got all excited ... after so many years. "I remember the balconies, the backyard ..." My brother-in-law (then about 5 years old), remembers playing with a turtle on the balcony. Yesterday, I read about Google providing street views for a number of Canadian cities ... so I thought: "How about Prague?" As it turns out, Prague was recently added to street views. We used Google Earth and this is what we found: Remarkable! ------------------------ Street View is also available in Google Maps. For example, click here then click on the . It marks the location of Trevi Fountain, in Rome ... then click on Street View ... then wander about: