Jensen's alpha

I recently got e-mail mentioning Jensen's alpha. It didn't ring a bell, so I search gummy-stuff.org (My memory is so lousy that I often have to do that.) Anyway, it ain't there so I google and wrote what I found, here. It's interesting, but (like most things I've written about) I don't think it's very useful. Nevertheless, it generates a number that (along with a jillion other numbers) one can add to one's arsenal in order to gauge the performance of stocks and/or funds. As Ron McEwan says in an e-mail, it gives "a better look ahead down a foggy road". Click for the big picture. Okay, wanna see magnificent J-alphas? My coal stock#1 got J-alpha = 11%. My coal stock#2 got J-alpha = 13%. My lithium stock got J-alpha = 33%. Whooeeee!!

 

In order to retain my equity until the new year (when my New Year's resolution is to start investing again in Coal), for a while I've held a bunch of $$ in a mutual fund invested "mostly" in financials. So, today I decide to sell it all, figuring that financials (though a good place to stick my $$ till year's end) often have a good month in Dec, but not in January ... maybe: Let us pray:

 

Richest countries

Click on chart for a larger version: Based upon info here

 

the DOW

Once upon a time I generated a fun spreadsheet (with the help of Ron McEwan). It looked at the past month (actually 25 market days) of stock prices for, say, the DOW. Then it looked over the past ten years to see what month was similar to the current month. Then it predicts the stock evolution for the coming month. Every once in a while I drag out that spreadsheet. This is the most recent result. It shows the growth of a $1K investment in the DOW over the most recent 25 days as well as the "best" historical match (starting Jan 22, 2007): Everybuddy knows that the future is a replica of the past. Hence and therefore, I (confidently) predict that the DOW will be at 10,188.97 in a month. (I could provide more decimal places.) Did I mention that the DOW is currently at 10,328?

 

U.S.government

Sad:

 

Languages

Okay, so I was bragging to Heidi about the fact that I knew a couple of computer languages. Languages with complicated commands like: A = B + C. Then she shows me the language that she reads: 'course, when she's finished she has something useful for our doggies and grandkids: And what do I have?

 

Avatar

Okay, guess who this is:

 

stock screener (maybe)

There I was, surfing the Net, looking for something amusing. Then I see a stock screener that looks for beaten-down stocks that are recovering fast ... so I decide to try that meself. Click! I was hoping to find (among S&P500 stocks) something really exciting. I was disappointed. Maybe there's another, better criterion ... huh? Anyway, here's one that's way down from its 52-week high yet seems to be recovering nicely: However, I still prefer these guys.

 

Coal

So I sell my coal stocks and take a cruise: P.S. Once upon a time, Heidi & I got us TFSA investment accounts. We started investing in Coal. Now, having larned our lesson, we're back in coal ag'in.

 

We're back !!

A great cruise!! http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Jewel-cruise.htm

 

Caribbean Cruise

 

Cruise

Today we start making a list: what to bring on our upcoming cruise. I look after the important things, like my pipe, tobacco and laptop. Heidi looks after all the other, less important stuff. Once upon a time I collected all the suggestions from various cruise discussion forums: Click! Quite interesting. Bring a laptop? That's so's I can keep a diary, sorta like this. With failing memory, I figure it'd be easier to store photos and videos and stick daily events into a diary before I forget 'em. I did this while camping in Texas, where we actually had free Internet access at the campground. Though there's Internet access on the ship, it costs a bundle per microsecond ... so I'll just wait till we get home (Dec 14) to stick the diary on my website.

 

Afghanistan, eh?

Obama makes a major speech on his Afghanistan decision. He personally contacts (in advance) leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, China and Russia ... among others. That includes countries that have no troops in Afghanistan, like China and Russia. That includes countries whose troops are mostly in non-combat roles, like Germany. Uh ... but wait. Doesn't Canada have troops there? And haven't Canadian troops suffered the greatest per capita losses? Click on picture to enlarge. But hold on! No problemo! Biden will inform the Canadian Prime Minister. Then, too, Canadian troops will be moved to another region: the Arghandab district, north of Kandahar. That's a piece of cake, right? After all, it's near the Canadian Dahla Dam restoration project. But wait. That's the site of pitched battles with NATO troops - a killing field for Taliban planting roadside bombs. A region where U.S. troops have sustained heavy casualties since being assigned there earlier this year. "Good luck to the Canadian troops in Arghandab," says a University of Nebraska geographer who has mapped Afghanistan for decades, and advises the military. "It's treacherous country and there are a lot of Taliban." ------------------------- Some countries have so-called "red card" status. They agree to send troops to Afghanistan provided their troop are not in combat roles or that they are assigned to less dangerous areas. During Operation Medusa, at least 12 Canadian soldiers died because they could not get support from other national contingents because of these combat-restrictions. In 2006, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Turkey were "red card" countries. Britain, Canada, the Netherlands and the U.S.A had major combat roles. "Hello? Mr. Biden? Are you there, eh?"

 

Ice Core Data

So I was staring at the ceiling ... thinking. I can understand how one can measure CO2 concentrations because of bubbles of trapped atmospheric gas, but how on Earth does one measure historical temperatures in a bunch of ice? It turns out that they measure isotope concentrations. Heavier isotopes will be more prevalent during colder periods, so the relative concentrations of various isotopes is a gauge of temperatures. Clever, eh? Other inclusions in ice cores can be used to measure such things as ocean volume, precipitation, chemistry and gas composition of the lower atmosphere, volcanic eruptions, solar variability, sea-surface productivity, desert extent and forest fires ... and there are some three dozen global ice core sites which seem to agree on most historical conclusions ... or is it inclusions? For example, data from two different ice cores: Click on the picture. See Global Warming

 

Global Warming

I reckon it's easy to agree with climatologists that our planet is warming ... and there's a correlation between CO2 levels and Temperature: Click on the chart and look at the recent increase in CO2 concentration. Current theories suggest that temperatures rise, then CO2 levels increase after a delay of maybe 800 years. The increased CO2 causes further temperature increases: a CO2 feedback. But it ain't easy to conclude that it's caused by human activity, like CO2, hydrofluorocarbon and other greenhouse gas emissions: There's sunspots activity, wobbling of the earth's axis, precession of the earth's orbit, changes in cosmic radiation, interstellar dust etc.. Now, if'n we could change all these, eh? But then there's this infamous hockey stick chart (promoted by Michael Mann, obtained from tree ring data) which appears to show a dramatic increase when humans were doing their thing:: Click on the chart Canadian mathematician Steve McIntyre has demonstrated that it's been "doctored". Then comes climategate and the manipulation (and destruction) of data by those promoting Global Warming. Mamma mia! It'll be interesting follow the discussions at the Copenhagen Climate Conference. So why would climatologists (with scientific training and peer-reviewed publications) ... why would they corrupt their data? Could it be that research grants are then more readily available?