H1N1 virus

Every morning I take a look at the W.H.O data on the H1N1 (swine flu) virus and attempt to fit a Logistic Curve to the data on cases (worldwide) ... like so: Though I take the result with a grain of salt (quite a large grain!), it's interesting that the Logistic fit (this morning: May 18) predicts a maximum of some 11,000 cases worldwide. The first time I did this (after 12 days), there were 2500 cases worldwide ... and the ritual predicted a maximum of 4250 cases worldwide. Then, 20 days after the first case and over 8400 reported cases, the prediction is over 11,000 !! Mamma mia! The chart above ... it keeps changing, eh? For an earlier chart (May 11/09) click here.