Sunday, January 17, 2010

log returns

Lynn K. recently asked about "logarithmic returns".
That's when, if the stock price goes from P0 to P1, you set the log-return as: log(P1 / P0).
Here, "logs" are "natural" logs, to the base e = 2.71828...

But why?
If the stock goes from $10 to $11 in 1 year, isn't the return 10%?
That'd be: P1 / P0 - 1 = 11/10 - 1 = 0.1 or 10%.
Nope. It's log(1.1) = 0.0953 or 9.53%.


Okay, but math types just love log-returns.

Consider a 10% annual return which is taken to be a monthly return of: 10/12% or 0.833% (per month).
As a fraction, that's 0.00833.
In a year (made up of 12 months!), that'd make $1 grow to $1.0083312 = $1.1047, so that's an annual return of 10.47%.

Forging ahead, we now divide a year into n time periods with a return of 10/n% .
As a fraction, that's 0.10/n in each time period.

In a year, that'd make $1 grow to $(1+0.10/n)n.
Now (as mathematicians are wont to do), we let n∞.
Guess what happens to (1+0.10/n)n?
It turns into a magical e0.10.
And e0.10 = 1.1052 so that'd be an annual return of 10.52%.

So what happened to the garden-variety, understood-by-everybody 10%?
It's vanished beneath the mathematical snow job.
The once-only compounding has turned into a continuously compounded return.

Of course, one might ask:
"What continuously compounded return would change $10 into $11?"
Why, that'd be r where er = P1 / P0.
Guess what that gives?
Surprise!
r = log(P1 / P0).
Ain't math wunnerful?
Who among us wouldn't want a nice smooooth growth, eh?



 

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