Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Time Machine revisited

I decided to add that neat addition to the "compare to historical" spreadsheet, to display the four "best" matches with historical months.

For "best", I minimize the maximum absolute value of the deviation over 25 market days.
This is what I get:




Best match: Max|error| =11.63

2nd-Best match: Max|error| =14.46

3rd-Best match: Max|error| =17.76

4th-Best match: Max|error| =19.23

So, based upon this elaborate analysis, I confidently predict that, in 25 market days, the DOW (currently at 10,725) will be 10,337.
Or, maybe 11,364.
Or ... maybe 9,981.

 

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