Saturday, April 24, 2010

Weighting

Recently, I talked about volume weighting stock prices, where prices associated with high volume were more significant. That was fun!

Then Donald W. pointed out these weighting schemes for ETFs. **

That reminded me of the days when I dabbled in various schemes for calculating "weighted averages".

Like evaluating a basket of stocks:
Creating Indexes
Equal-weighted Indexes
Comparing Active & Passive performances

Then there's weighting when it comes to looking at historical performances ... like weighted moving averages:
Exponential Moving Average
A host of other averages
Mamma mia! That, too, was great fun!

Mebbe, when people say:
"The average was ..."
we should respond:
"Average? What average?"  

** Although it's not clear (at first), by "equal weighting" the author means equal dollar amounts invested in each, not equal shares.

Here's an interesting fact:
Had you bought 1 share in each of the 30 DOW stocks, one year ago, your gain would be 43%. That'd be equal-share-weight, eh? (The DOW Index has this weighting. More dollars are invested in stocks with higher prices.)

Aah, but had you bought $1.00 in each of the 30 DOW stocks, one year ago, your gain would be 49%. That'd be equal-dollar-weight, eh?

Before we get too excited about doing MUCH better, consider the previous year.
Equal-share-weighting would have given us -37% whereas equal-dollar-weighting would have given us -36%.

Here's a pretty picture (using the current 30 DOW stocks):

For reasons I don't understand, the equal-shares weighting should be the same as the actual DOW.
I reckon the DOW components have changed over the past year, eh? After all, GM was dumped ... and wasn't CISCO added?
 

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