Thursday, May 20, 2010

Returns vs Volatility

I read some article that mentioned:
"In questionnaires, investors tended to have higher return expectations when they forecast volatility as being relatively low".
What!
Are investors schtoopid or somethin' ?
Everybuddy knows that one should associate higher returns with higher volatility.

Regardless of what investors "think", what's the data show?
Here's a gaggle of DOW stocks:

5-year Return vs the Volatility of monthly returns:

See? Smaller returns are associated with higher volatility.
Are investors schmart or what !!

Mebbe investors are influenced by what happened earlier (?)
Here's that chart using data 5 years earlier:

P.S.
I got the data from the spreadsheet described here -- with some mods to get 5-year returns rather than annualized returns.
P.P.S.
Shhh ... don't tell nobuddy.
Under one of the buttons it says d for daily returns.
Y'all can change that to m for monthly returns.

 

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