Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Magic events

Remember when we talked about Darvas boxes?
It was a scheme that relied upon the occurrence of some event or situation.
When it happened, you made your move and X% of the time (historically speaking), you'd make money.
If X% were in the neighbourhood of 50%, it ain't a good scheme.
(Half the time you lose, eh?)
However, if x% > 60% then (eventually!) you'd make money
... or so the theory goes.

Anyway, there seem to be lots of such magic events lying around.
We talked about them what-are-they-called stocks,
It was pretty easy to find a pair of stocks, A and B such that:

On days when A opened DOWN, B would go UP that day
--- most of the time.

That suggests a trading strategy for certain magic pairs::
Buy B at the Open and sell at the Close
... whenever A opened DOWN.

Click to enlarge..

Wanna see what would have happened the year before?
Click!


Here's another, simpler scheme based upon the fact that (historically speaking), certain magic stocks (much of the time) increase from Open to Close, even when they open DOWN. That was true of several DOW stocks, over the past year.

For example, the IBM opened DOWN 150 times (over the past year).
In 87 of those times, it nevertheless increased from Open to Close.
That's almost 60%, right?
So here's the strategy (for that magic stock):
Buy at the Open and sell at the Close
... whenever the stock opened DOWN.


Alas, that 60% was just 46% the year before.

 

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