H1N1

For some time, I was tracking the cases of H1N1 Swine flu virus. I even did an analysis to predict the "eventual" number of cases, worldwide. Though I stopped doing this on July 1, 2009 (when the number of cases was just under 80,000), I did get a prediction (based upon fitting a curve to the logarithm of cases, weighting the recent cases more heavily): It's interesting to note that my "prediction" was 263,025 cases. I just looked up the latest report of the W.H.O. and find that, as of August 30, 2009, the number of cases is 254,206 . That's scary.

 

H1N1

I've been following the (almost) daily updates on the worldwide H1N1 Swine Flu cases (as reported by W.H.O.) I've also been trying to fit some "S-curves" to the data in order to predict the eventual number of cases. There are currently about 30,000 cases. So far I've got this fit ... and it predicts some 66,000 cases - eventually.