Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Darvas Boxes

Richard C. writes and asks about Darvas Boxes.
As usual, I ain't never heard of 'em before.
So I browse a bit and find that it's the brainchild of former ballroom dancer Nicolas Darvas (in 1956 ) and has something to do with stock prices trading in a narrow range ... for a while.
For example:
Microsoft, over the period Nov 18/09 - Dec 16/09):

  • The variation is about 3%.
  • So I draw a rectangle identifying the range.
  • Then I see what happens after that.
See? The price breaks out of the rectangle and (I guess?) one should buy the stock. "I guess", 'cause I don't know much about these Darvas Boxes.

Did I mention that I ain't never heard of 'em before?

P.S. I reckon the stock can break out down as well as up.

There's a spreadsheet to play with. Click!

See if you can find neat Boxes. ... especially recent ones.

Here's a recent one (Walmart):

Let's see what happens next, eh?

The spreadsheet looks like this.

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P.S.

 

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