Guess the price

I was feeling pretty schmart. I had guessed the price movement of some of my favourite stocks. Then I thought: "I should try that Guess-the-Price game." Now, with all that practice, I'd be a whiz. I was disappointed to learn that I was still lousy. Okay, now you try. Here are the weekly stock prices for 32 weeks. What'll it be in 4 weeks? Click the chart to see. Here are more: So ... are you lousy too?

 

Guess the price

I've been reading this book. Fascinating! It's all about what events/numbers/environments influence our (often irrational) decisions. Once upon a time I generated an interesting spreadsheet (described here) which asks you to predict future stock prices (based upon historical stock behaviour). Not possible, right? The past is no indication of the future, right? So what does influence our prediction? Aah, if'n I could only identify investor irrationalizations I'd be a mbillionaire! However, I haven't finished the book, yet. But when I do ...