Showing posts with label log returns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label log returns. Show all posts

Sunday, January 17, 2010

log returns

Lynn K. recently asked about "logarithmic returns".
That's when, if the stock price goes from P0 to P1, you set the log-return as: log(P1 / P0).
Here, "logs" are "natural" logs, to the base e = 2.71828...

But why?
If the stock goes from $10 to $11 in 1 year, isn't the return 10%?
That'd be: P1 / P0 - 1 = 11/10 - 1 = 0.1 or 10%.
Nope. It's log(1.1) = 0.0953 or 9.53%.


Okay, but math types just love log-returns.

Consider a 10% annual return which is taken to be a monthly return of: 10/12% or 0.833% (per month).
As a fraction, that's 0.00833.
In a year (made up of 12 months!), that'd make $1 grow to $1.0083312 = $1.1047, so that's an annual return of 10.47%.

Forging ahead, we now divide a year into n time periods with a return of 10/n% .
As a fraction, that's 0.10/n in each time period.

In a year, that'd make $1 grow to $(1+0.10/n)n.
Now (as mathematicians are wont to do), we let n∞.
Guess what happens to (1+0.10/n)n?
It turns into a magical e0.10.
And e0.10 = 1.1052 so that'd be an annual return of 10.52%.

So what happened to the garden-variety, understood-by-everybody 10%?
It's vanished beneath the mathematical snow job.
The once-only compounding has turned into a continuously compounded return.

Of course, one might ask:
"What continuously compounded return would change $10 into $11?"
Why, that'd be r where er = P1 / P0.
Guess what that gives?
Surprise!
r = log(P1 / P0).
Ain't math wunnerful?
Who among us wouldn't want a nice smooooth growth, eh?