Monday, December 21, 2009

the DOW

Once upon a time I generated a fun spreadsheet (with the help of Ron McEwan).
It looked at the past month (actually 25 market days) of stock prices for, say, the DOW.
Then it looked over the past ten years to see what month was similar to the current month. Then it predicts the stock evolution for the coming month.

Every once in a while I drag out that spreadsheet. This is the most recent result.
It shows the growth of a $1K investment in the DOW over the most recent 25 days as well as the "best" historical match (starting Jan 22, 2007):


Everybuddy knows that the future is a replica of the past.
Hence and therefore, I (confidently) predict that the DOW will be at 10,188.97 in a month.
(I could provide more decimal places.)
Did I mention that the DOW is currently at 10,328?

 

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