the DOW

Once upon a time I generated a fun spreadsheet (with the help of Ron McEwan). It looked at the past month (actually 25 market days) of stock prices for, say, the DOW. Then it looked over the past ten years to see what month was similar to the current month. Then it predicts the stock evolution for the coming month. Every once in a while I drag out that spreadsheet. This is the most recent result. It shows the growth of a $1K investment in the DOW over the most recent 25 days as well as the "best" historical match (starting Jan 22, 2007): Everybuddy knows that the future is a replica of the past. Hence and therefore, I (confidently) predict that the DOW will be at 10,188.97 in a month. (I could provide more decimal places.) Did I mention that the DOW is currently at 10,328?

 

the DOW

Wondering if the market is recovering, I check the DOW stocks and compare their recent prices with some moving averages and 52-week lows and highs and see the "best" and "worst": Max (Price/50day MA) 1.20 BK OF AMERICA CP P/E=30 P/B=0.8 Min (Price/50day MA) 0.99 PROCTER GAMBLE P/E=12 P/B=2.5 Max (Price/200day MA) 1.69 BK OF AMERICA CP P/E=30 P/B=0.8 Min (Price/52week Lo) 1.11 WAL MART STORES P/E=15 P/B=3.0 Max (Price/52week Hi) 0.96 3M COMPANY P/E=18 P/B=4.6 Max (Price/52week Lo) 7.08 BK OF AMERICA CP P/E=30 P/B=0.8 So what does one see? Bank of America has really recovered, its stock being 7x its 52-week low ... and it done good compared to its moving averages. Aah, but it's got one of the largest P/E ratios of the 30 DOW stocks. Check it out.

 

DOW vs the World

Every morning (when the markets aren't having a holiday), I check the Asian and European market indexes: http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ They're open before ours, eh? I'm hoping that I can tell whether North American markets will open Up or Down. Who influences whom? Of course, I've already investigated the possibilities: DOW vs the World ⊗ If foreign markets are Up (or Down) early one morning, will the DOW open Up (or Down) that day? ⊗ If the DOW closes Up (or Down) one day, will foreign markets open Up (or Down) the next day? Alas, I never learn! I can't tell nothin' from foreign markets.