pillow stock

Some time ago (when I used to visit several financial discussion forums), estimating how long a portfolio would last if you withdrew $X each year, and what percentage withdrawal rate was "safe" ... that was a hot topic of discussion. Maybe it still is (?) Anyway, I spent far too much time on SWRs. Typically, one looks at the past, extracts a few convenient numbers (average returns, volatility, asset allocation, etc.) then extrapolates into the future. Anyway, I happen to run across one of them spreadsheets (and sobbed at all the time I wasted), then thought of an interesting question: How would your portfolio compare to putting your money under a pillow? Well, it was interesting to me. So I decided to compare a stock portfolio with putting the money under a pillow. With each "portfolio", I withdrew just enough each month so the "pillow stock" would run out in 10 years. That meant 120 withdrawals, each being 1/120 of the initial portfolio. Example: Start with $120K and withdraw $1K per month for 120 months, eh? I repeated this with the stock portfolio, calculating the final portfolio (after 10 years) as a percentage of the original. This is what I got (for DOW stocks): CATerpillar ended up with 218% of the initial portfolio !! (CSCO lasted just 36 months.) The other DOW stocks didn't make it. The DOW itself barely made it. Now, ain't that interesting? I might point out: For the 10 years ending in Feb, 2005, a CSCO portfolio ended UP over 700% !!! Have I mentioned that the future is a perfect replica of the past? P.S.