Computers, eh?

Contemplating my failing memory, I decided to brush up on what's inside a PC ... in particular, how components communicate. So (with some trepidation, knowing I'll screw up somewhere), I started a tutorial. Click! When I larn more, I'll finish it ... maybe

 

Once upon a time I could look under the hood of a car and recognize everything there. So could Heidi. While I was attending the Univ. of Illinois (in Champaign-Urbana)**, Heidi (who worked as a nurse at a local clinic) would drive our '59 Pontiac. When the car stalled, she'd grab her screwdriver, open the hood, remove the distributor cap and adjust the timing. (That really impressed her fellow nurses!) These days, I can't recognize anything under the hood. Once upon a time I could look under the cover of a PET computer, modify contents, burn EPROM memory chips, add sound with a chip and external speaker (since early personal PCs didn't have sound) etc. etc. Programs that I'd write (in the Basic language) included tutorials and games and would reside on audio tape. (See the tape deck in the picture, above?) Today, I can't even change memory chips. Indeed, I have a problem recognizing anything under the hood. Of course, once upon a time I was so much younger. Once of these days I should really brush up on computer science. It's been a long time since I programmed the five ton Illiac (fired up in 1952: 2800 vacuum tubes, a 64K magnetic drum memory and state-of-the-art paper tape input): Indeed, I bought my first hand-held computer some thirty years ago: the remarkable, programmable HP 65. At this moment, it sits by my PC: At this moment, I have no idea how to program it. ** Remember HAL? The computer in the movie 2001: a Space Odyssey? He was "born" in Champaign-Urbana.

 

Eid al-Adha

Happy Eid al-Adha Days of eating, drinking and remembrance of God. Click Click

 

Thanksgiving

Happy Thanksgiving U.S.A. Click

 

H5N1

There are 16 types of flu virus, depending upon the Hemagglutinen structure ... and H1, H2 and H3 are "human" viruses. H5 is (normally) a bird virus, but can attack pigs ... and it may mutate! The structure of the virus is also influenced by Neuraminidase protein. It's the H - N combination that identifies the virus: Now, China (which has had the deadlier H5N1 virus for some time) fears the worst: "Inside China, H5N1 has been existing for some time, so if there is really a reassortment between H1N1 and H5N1, it will be a disaster"

 

Confidence

Improving?

 

Afghanistan

Why? Is Afghanistan a country, ruled by a single leader?

 

Market Crash

Once upon a time I generated a spreadsheet that ... uh ... "predicted" market crashes. I even stuck an explanation here... and a "predicted" crash near the end of Sept, 2007. Alas, many actually believed that there'd be a crash. Unfortunately, the DOW did drop in Oct/Nov, 2007 which made me look like a wizard. In some discussion forums I called the chart the gummy prevarication index so nobuddy would take it seriously. Recently, Don W. sent me e-mail asking about another prediction ... so here it is: As it turns out, the S&P500 will also crash in Feb/10. The Toronto TSX Index will crash the end of Jan, 2010. The FTSE will crash this Friday and Brazil will crash the day after tomorrow. Have y'all written that down?

 

CERN

Whooeee! Finally! CERN got the Large Hadron Collider working: Click! Now, let's find some Higgs bosons, eh?

 

Universal Healthcare - maybe

---------------------------- Canada began (almost) universal healthcare in 1946, in a single province. By 1957, the federal government agreed to pay 50% of healthcare expenses for any province that adopted medicare. (Sorta like the proposed U.S. opt-out provision.) By 1961 all provinces had adopted some medicare plan. By 1984, the Canada Health Act was passed, requiring universal coverage. Conclusion? It'll be years (and years) before the U.S. adopts a real universal plan. But a journey of many years begins with a first bill, eh? So, are Canadians delighted with all aspects of our healthcare? Of course not! Some purchase additional (private) coverage. Some supplement the government medicare with dentistry & optometry coverage. (While at the Univ. of Waterloo, I had "extra" coverage.) Many complain of long wait times for non-urgent procedures. Some complain that the government only pays a fraction of drug costs. (Heidi & I, as "seniors", pay the first $100, each year.) 'course, many Canadians complain of the long Winters, the price of gas, the taste of McDonald's hamburgers, etc. So, would Canadians be prepared to replace our system with some other? Of course not! We, like other Homo sapiens, just like to complain.

 

Mutual Funds

I invest only in stocks (or ETFs) 'cause I like to buy and/or sell at arbitrary times throughout the day. To this end, (almost) all of my spreadsheets download stock data. A couple of days ago I get an e-mail request to download Fund stuff: As if to emphasize my senility, it took me two days to figure out how to extract the table from here ... for a gaggle of funds. Click!

 

Trade Volume

So I was looking over some of my favourite stocks, staring intently at the daily volume and thinking: "Is that a large volume ... or what? And large compared to what? Large compared to the average daily volume?" How about large compared to the number of outstanding shares? That's when I realized that I had no clue about how many shares trade compared to the total number of shares available for trading. As is my wont, I pulled up Excel and fiddled. I now got me a spreadsheet which gave this (for the S&P500): Click for an enlargement. So what did I learn? Not much, except that AIG trading is like 30% ... and that's large!

 

Lithium (again)

A while ago I got all excited about Lithium (and even mentioned it here). Though I invest for entertainment (rather than making a fortune), my lithium done good: So my wife sells her lithium stock and ... uh ... I sell mine, too. (Am I henpecked?) Now I'm sad and will probably buy back. It's for health reasons (adrenaline production, coronary stimulation, etc.)

 

Most Active Month

While cogitating the behaviour of investors (see Halloween and Investor-think) I notice that October is often (usually?) the most active month: More shares trade in October than in any other. Here are the DOW stocks (over the last 10 years) (summing the monthly volumes). Click on the picture for an enlargement. P.S. The 10th month is October. Now why is that? Does everybuddy dump their stocks, concerned that October is the month that's had all them crashes? But September is (usually) the worstest month: Click! If'n I can't figure the thought processes that influence my wife's buy-sell decisions,** how will I ever figure out how investors think, eh? **You'd think I could figure that out ... we'll soon be celebrating our 50th wedding anniversary!

 

Investor Think

So I've been thinking about how investors might think. It may (or may not) be rational thought. Nevertheless, it's fun to play with various ideas: Click!

 

Guess the price

I've been reading this book. Fascinating! It's all about what events/numbers/environments influence our (often irrational) decisions. Once upon a time I generated an interesting spreadsheet (described here) which asks you to predict future stock prices (based upon historical stock behaviour). Not possible, right? The past is no indication of the future, right? So what does influence our prediction? Aah, if'n I could only identify investor irrationalizations I'd be a mbillionaire! However, I haven't finished the book, yet. But when I do ...

 

another Index

Remember when I invented the world's best Index ... which I called the g-Index? My idea was: "Invest equal amounts in each stock". Well, I asked by brother-in-law (Gerry) how he'd invest in the DOW 30 stocks. His response was to invest lesser amounts in them that got large market caps. No WAY !! So I played with investing an amount proportional to the inverse of the Mkt Caps and got this (over the past year): See the red curve? That's HIS Index. Tonight, he's coming over for dinner. I'll tell him he's ALSO got a G-Index.

Debt

I've been reading about the U.S. debt (as a percentage of GDP) and thinking that they is in grave danger. Over 60% of their GDP. Mamma mia! So I check out how they compare to other countries: Click on the chart for a larger image. 60%? Peanuts, eh? Check out India & Japan and (gulp!) even Canada! 'course, there are various ways of measuring "National Debt" as there are various ways to measure "GDP". ** Click! ** If'n you hire a nanny, that's part of the GDP. If'n you look after your own, it ain't!

 

Pork Masala

Heidi & I have been trying the local Indian restaurants. Chicken Tikka Masala tasted so great that I figured I should be able to reproduce a similar (but simpler) dish at home, with pork ... sort of. Alas, it was okay ... but a disappointment: I should stick to visiting local Indian restaurants. My Pork Tikka Masala recipe. Note: Garam masala is a gaggle of exotic spices.

 

Indexes (again)

Since the DOW is proportional to the average of 30 stock prices and the S&P500 is proportional to the average of 500 market capitalizations, then what'd happen if'n we invent an Index which is proportional to the average of the gains, beginning at some convenient point in time ... like 10 years ago (November, 1999)? Suppose we try it, using the DOW 30 stocks. This "new" Index would look like so: The S&P is stuck in there for a comparison. I call the new Index the g-Index. The g stands for ... uh ... great. ------------------------------------------------- The justification (if any) for the g-Index is that, being ignorant of which stock will be the best performer, you'd presumably invest equal amounts in each stock. In that case, your portfolio would be a g-Index.

 

Indexes

To calculate the DOW Index, you add all the prices. It's described as a "Price-Weighted Index". Similarly, the S&P is described as a "Market-Cap Weighted Index" ... presumably because its calculation requires you to add all the Mkt Caps. I've always felt that describing these Indexes as "Weighted" was misleading. Perhaps that's because I was thinking "Weighted Averages". Perhaps that's the result of creeping senility. Anyway, now I'm happy. I see that the Gains are weighted averages - even if the Indexes aren't. Besides my confusion over the use of the adjective "weighted", I've always been annoyed at the use of a Sum of Prices to generate an Index. I imagine Berkshire-Hathaway as being a component of a 31-stock DOW. It's weight would be obscene. It'd generate 99% of the value of the Index. On the other hand, as the component of a 31-stock "Mkt-Cap Weighted" DOW, it's weight would be respectable.

 

Holy Books

I am often appalled, surprised and/or confused by conflicting passages from various Holy Books ... in particular the Bible and the Qur'an. I read here: "... whosoever killeth a human being for other than manslaughter or corruption in the earth, it shall be as if he had killed all mankind, and whoso saveth the life of one, it shall be as if he had saved the life of all mankind." Yet, I read here: "So when you meet in battle those who disbelieve, then smite the necks until when you have overcome them" Then I read [35]: "For I have come to set a man against his father, and a daughter against her mother, and a daughter-in-law against her mother-in-law; and a man's foes will be those of his own household. " Then I read [44]: "Love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them which despitefully use you, and persecute you" Perhaps the only passage I fully understand is this one: that a husband is the head of the family and may beat his wife if she is disobedient. Though I often mention this divine edict to my wife, she just laughs ... and I fear I may be beaten if I persist.

 

Metric

Sometimes I wonder about this metric system, especially for temperatures. I see it's gonna be 27 degrees Celsius and wonder how hot that's gonna be. So I convert and get about 81 degrees Fahrenheit ... and I'm happy. Then I wonder how many countries are metric and how many ain't and find this map: Mamma mia! We is not alone!!

 

Veterans' Week: Nov 5 - Nov 11

In Flanders fields the poppies blow Between the crosses, row on row, That mark our place; and in the sky The larks, still bravely singing, fly Scarce heard amid the guns below. We are the Dead. Short days ago We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow, Loved, and were loved, and now we lie In Flanders Fields. Take up our quarrel with the foe: To you from failing hands we throw The torch; be yours to hold it high. If ye break faith with us who die We shall not sleep, though poppies grow In Flanders Fields. Lt.-Col. John McCrae (1872 - 1918)